Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

208
FXUS62 KJAX 180537
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1237 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Clear skies through midnight should allow for radiational cooling
briefly as high pressure exits our region. Have lowered forecast
low temperatures a degree or two. Otherwise no notable changes
needed for the evening update as a low moving north from south FL
overnight will lead to increasing low clouds after midnight with
showers mainly offshore. Very light winds 3-5 mph from the
southeast will become southerly into sunrise. Lows will fall to
the low to mid 40s inland along and north of I-10, upper 40s along
the coast and south of I-10.

The low will move northeast away from the area into the Atlantic
waters to the northeast Saturday with light showers over portions
of SE GA through early afternoon as a warm front lifts from the
south between the exiting low and a developing low to the west
along the Gulf coast. As this low will moves east, showers will
develop ahead of it over the NE Gulf coast/FL panhandle and shift
ENE into the area in the mid to late afternoon hours. Highs will
be about 5 degrees above normal in the mid 60s over SE GA, around
70 along I-10, and the low 70s south of I-10 with mid 70s over
north central FL. Heavier showers and isolated T`storms will
arrive late Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather, clear skies, and mild winds will be in place through this
afternoon and into this evening with increased cloud cover and
light isolated showers developing overnight and into Saturday
morning as high pressure high pressure recedes to the northeast,
followed by moisture and instability ahead of an advancing cold
front from out of the northwest. High temperatures today will
range between the lower and upper 60s with warmer temperatures
occurring further to the south. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the mid 40s over southeast Georgia and in the upper
40s and lower 50s over northeast Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

On Saturday, frontal system will be approaching the area from the
west with low level winds turning southerly in response. A weak
low/trough that formed over the FL peninsula overnight will move
northeast Saturday. There may be a brief lull in the precip before
the richer moisture and lift move in by mid morning to mid aftn
Sat and then prevailing high rain chances Sat night as the deepest
moisture and lift move in over the area. Still a non-zero chance
of a strong storm over the area late Sat into Sat night, and note
that is potential is muted by cloud cover and weak instability but
strong deep layer shear is available. CAM guidance suggests an
uptick in strong storm potential by Sat evening until late in the
night, mainly closer to the I-75 corridor where instability may be
a bit better though still weak. The cold front will gradually
move east across the deep south Sunday, with still widespread
precip Sunday morning across northeast FL. The deep layer trough
associated with the cold frontal system will continue to migrate
east causing this Arctic cold front to move southeastward and
across our CWA, and we should see precip chances diminishing
through Sunday from northwest to southeast. Should be mostly dry
Sunday night with brisk northwest winds and becoming much colder
as strong Arctic high pressure about 1036 mb moves in over the
central CONUS. Freeze and hard freeze temps Monday morning along
with wind chills likely meeting cold weather advisory criteria. A
low chance for some icy roads Monday morning mainly Suwannee
Valley area northward into our southeast GA counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Dangerously cold next week as Arctic air plunges to the area bring
much below normal temps of the winter thus far to the local area.
High temperatures only reach the 40s areawide Monday. Freeze headlines
are expected Monday night, with a hard freeze likely for parts of
southeast GA. As the week progresses, cold Arctic air continues
across the area. Guidance is still suggesting a low chance (10%)
of a wintry mix of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning
mainly across SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley. The potential
for winter weather including snow and freezing rainfall increases
Tuesday into Wednesday morning along and north of the I-10 corridor
as cold air remains entrenched across the area as an area of low
pressure in the Gulf advances eastward across the FL peninsula,
with strong dynamical support across the region as a long wave
trough passes overhead. The best potential looks to be Tuesday
night at this time. Recent consensus model guidance indicates
about 20-30% chances of freezing rain generally along and north
the I-10 corridor through southeast GA during the mid week time
frame. There is even small areas of 30-40 percent chances inland
parts of north FL west of JAX through Lake City. Although the
specifics of the potential wintry mix of precipitation across SE
GA and portions of NE FL are still somewhat uncertain and are a
complex, the GFS and ECMWF are better agreement on the moisture
over the area Tue-Wed compared to 2-3 days ago. Given the mixed
precip, there could be minor impacts for travel and possible
infrastructure (i.e., power system). This again is primarily to
be noted for southeast GA and to near the I-10 corridor. Inland
rain chances tapper off late Wed with a chance of mainly coastal
showers into Thu with continued inland freezes. Uncertainty is
high toward Friday with disagreement in global guidance. For this
forecast, we leaned toward a wetter solution with chance of
showers again by Friday with some slight warming of temps but
still below normal by upwards of 8-15 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

A developing low will move north along the FL peninsula tonight
leading to increasing clouds and lowering ceilings to MVFR levels
after 09Z as moisture increases with the system. Some improvement
to VFR expected around 14-15Z except for SSI which will have VCSH
through most of the day and ceilings broken around 3.5 kft under
mid level overcast skies. A warm front will linger between the
departing low to the northeast and a developing low to the west
along the Gulf coast. Ahead of this low, rain showers will fill in
by mid to late afternoon across all TAF sites and ceilings will
lower down to LIFR conditions at SSI around 19z and MVFR at JAX,
CRG, and SSI after 21-22Z. As the low moves in from the west, it
will drag a strong cold front through the area late Saturday night
lowering ceilings further at JAX and VQQ around 03z to LIFR
conditions. There is a low chance of T`storms ahead of the front
that may move towards the terminals but have left out VCTS at this
time due to low confidence of formation location.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

High pressure will shift offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast today
as an area of low pressure forms near the southwest Florida Gulf
Coast. This low will track northward up the Florida peninsula
tonight and track northeast away from the local waters Saturday
morning. A pre-frontal band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move across the waters late Saturday into Saturday night,
then the cold front will move south across the local waters late
Sunday trailed by a cold airmass and increasing northerly winds
into Monday. Strong high pressure builds northwest of the region
Monday into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure forms in the
southern Gulf with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected
through at least mid-week. There is a chance of rain and snow
showers across southeast Georgia waters Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: Low risk rest of today and Saturday for all local
beaches with weaker winds rest of today becoming to SSW into
Saturday with falling water levels with the pass of the full
moon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

The RH values are a bit lower this afternoon so we have lowered
dewpoints a bit. Otherwise, dry with high pressure over the region.
Values increase over the weekend as moisture builds into the area
before drying out again early Monday behind a passing Arctic cold
frontal boundary. Expect heavy rainfall with some stronger storms
possible Saturday aftn to night with rain continuing into Sunday
morning and clearing the area by Monday morning. Dispersion values
will be poor to fair for the next couple of days over much of the
area with conditions improving over SE GA Sunday but remaining
poor to fair over NE FL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Saturday through Sunday expected rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches
are forecast with the axis focused near the FL-GA state-line and
Interstate 10 corridor. There remains the potential for higher end
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through the weekend which could
bring a localized flooding rainfall threat. The Weather Predication
Center continues to highlight much of NE FL under a "Marginal
Risk" of flooding rainfall late Saturday & Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Much below normal temps next week is expected with potential for
record low max temps especially Jan 20th-22nd. Currently, record
lows look out of reach next week except for possibly Thursday
morning some records possible at Alma GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  54  63  26 /  70  80  30   0
SSI  63  54  65  29 /  70  90  60   0
JAX  71  56  68  29 /  70  90  80  10
SGJ  72  57  66  33 /  30  90  90  20
GNV  72  58  66  31 /  40 100  80  10
OCF  75  60  68  33 /  30  90  90  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$