Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

839
FXUS62 KJAX 141605
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot and Humid Today thru Monday - Peak Heat Index Values: 104-108

- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide Through Most of the
  week. Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon (2 PM
  9 PM). Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning
  Strikes & Heavy Downpours Possible Along the I-95 Corridor

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Another Hot Day with Heat Index Peaking Around 102-107 Degrees

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, A Few Strong
to Isolated Severe Storms Possible, with locally heavy rainfall

- Lower confidence in late night strong to severe storms for inland
Southeast Georgia

Not much change to ongoing forecast as a moist West to Northwest
steering flow along with PWATs around 2 inches will support
scattered to numerous storms area-wide this afternoon and evening.
These higher PWATs and generally slow storm motion from West to East
around 10-15 mph or less will support localized flooding threat with
isolated 2-4 inch amounts, highest threat in urban areas today.

Prior to the onset of convection expect temps to reach into the
lower to middle 90s and combine with dew point temps into the
mid/upper 70s to once again produce peak heat indices of 104F to
108F early this afternoon, remaining just below Advisory criteria.

Convergence in the W-SW flow along the NE Gulf Coast has already
triggered early rounds of convection along the I-75 corridor of
inland NE FL which will continue to progress to the East and
interact with the East Coast sea breeze front trapped along the I-95
corridor and this is where the best chances for isolated Severe
Storms will be with downburst winds of 60 mph possible along the
Atlantic Coastal counties of NE FL/SE GA. Further inland, isolated
strong storms with gusty winds of 40-55 mph still expected, and any
cell mergers and/or outflow boundary collisions still have the
potential to trigger an isolated severe storm as well. Mid level
lapse rates are not as steep as on Saturday afternoon as 500mb temps
have warmed slightly, closer to -6C.

Convection will start to fade around sunset and push into the
Atlantic Coastal waters, with most areas developing fair skies by
midnight with humid overnight lows in the 70s inland and near 80F
along the Atlantic Coast.

There are a few higher res models which are suggesting that a line
of pre-frontal showers and storms may push into inland SE GA during
the overnight hours, which would impact areas to the NW of Waycross
with isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds possible
after midnight. There is lower confidence in this scenario at this
time, but will need to closely monitor for another potential round
of convection impacting inland SE GA late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat index values approach Advisory levels Monday afternoon
- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day
- Locally heavy rainfall, along with the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoons


Surface high pressure ridge will stretch across southern FL Monday,
as a cold front sinks south toward the region. The combination of
ample moisture, diurnal heating, Gulf sea breeze and frontal
convergence will lead to above average chances of afternoon and
evening convection. The flow from the west is expected to be strong
enough to keep the east coast sea breeze pinned to the coast. This
will result in a progressive flow of convection across the forecast
area from west to east, and allow the higher temperatures to reach
all the way to the beaches. The potential for strong to severe
storms will once again be possible.

On Tuesday, the front will sink south into the forecast area. In
addition to the factors still in place from Monday, the frontal
convergence will be greater. This will result in greater coverage of
convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Once again, there will be
enough flow from the west to keep the east coast sea breeze from
getting past the beach, allowing beach communities to heat up ahead
of the storms.

With loss of diurnal heating, convection should end by midnight
Monday night, but with the front in the forecast area, activity
will likely continue through the night Tuesday night.

Temperatures will continue to be above average this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
- Locally heavy rainfall and potential for strong to severe storms

The cold front will remain stalled over the region Wednesday through
Friday, as it slowly dissipates. This boundary will continue to aid
in daily convection, with greatest chances Wednesday. As the
boundary weakens Thursday into Friday, storm chances will decrease.
The southwest flow will continue to be strong enough to keep the
east coast sea breeze from making much progress. Temperatures will
trend below average Wednesday due to convective coverage, with
readings trending above Thursday and Friday, as coverage is not as
great.

Another front will sink south into the area and stall over the
weekend. Above average chances for storms forecast due to the
frontal convergence. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Convection already ongoing near GNV and will push into the rest of
the TAF sites in the 18-22Z time frame and have added in VCTS with
TEMPO groups for gusty winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in TSRA activity at
the remaining terminals. As convection develops, a few of the
stronger storms may produce gusty winds to 30 knots and potential
for IFR VSBYS which may need to be added in forecast updates through
the afternoon hours. Convection should fade around sunset and expect
a return to mainly VFR conds and convective mid/high debris clouds
after 02-03Z. SW winds remain elevated tonight and should prevent
much fog formation except for MVFR VSBYS at VQQ. Chances for MVFR
CIGS in the 09-12Z time frame too low to include at this time. SW
winds increase once again by 14-15Z time frame on Monday with VCSH
and isolated showers by the end of the upcoming TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...


The region will be between high pressure to the south southeast, and
a frontal zone stalling just north of the local waters through most
of the upcoming week. This will lead to a predominant southwest flow
which will become breezy at times, with periods of Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions, mainly over the offshore waters. The
offshore flow will continue to push strong storms with gusty winds
and frequent lightning into the coastal waters through the period.

Rip Currents:

Generally a low risk of rip currents early this week as surf remains
only in the 1-2 ft range in the predominant offshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy To Areas Of High Dispersions This Week

A series of frontal boundaries will keep chances for daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms above average through the week, and into
next weekend. Temperatures will be largely above average this week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is expected
Tonight. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours, with the potential for strong
storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  93  73  84 /  30  80  60  70
SSI  77  95  76  89 /  30  80  60  70
JAX  75  96  76  92 /  40  70  60  70
SGJ  76  95  77  93 /  40  70  40  60
GNV  75  93  76  91 /  20  40  20  50
OCF  76  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$